Following the Bitcoin halving in 2024, the cryptocurrency market and the mining hardware market have entered a phase of rigorous risk reassessment. Mining profitability now depends not only on the price of BTC, but also on the cost of electricity and the efficiency of ASIC hardware. This, in turn, is creating fierce competition amongst miners.
According to estimates by the vast majority of analytical firms, two out of ten Bitcoin miners are operating at a loss (this is around 20 per cent of the total), whilst for some crypto companies, the cost of mining a single BTC already exceeds the profits from its sale.
Analytical data, as of the first and second quarters of 2026, indicates that there are several significant factors influencing the market as a whole. These include the halving that took place in April 2024, when the block reward was reduced to 3.125 BTC per block, the rising cost of next-generation ASIC equipment, and the debt burden faced by many mining companies. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s hash rate and high electricity prices in Europe and parts of Asia are placing a significant strain on production costs.
The price of Bitcoin and the zone of financial pressure
If, 10 years ago, in 2016, the average cost of mining 1 BTC on the international market was estimated at approximately $300–700, depending on the country and equipment, by the first half of 2026, large publicly listed miners have an average cost of around $85,000–95,000 or €78,000–87,000 per BTC.
The average cost of mining 1 BTC in 2026 is estimated at around $90,000 (≈ €83,000). The market price of Bitcoin in the first half of 2026 fluctuated between $108,000 and $112,000 (≈ €99,000–103,000). It is precisely this narrow range, where the difference is approximately 18–22 per cent, that analysts refer to as the ‘financial pressure zone’.
To what extent are the crypto market and the hardware market interdependent?
These sectors are developing almost in parallel. According to data analysed by leading research centres CoinShares and JPMorgan: over 80 per cent of ASIC manufacturers’ revenue depends on miner activity, and a 30–40 per cent drop in the price of BTC has reduced equipment sales by 50 per cent or more.
Consequently, when Bitcoin rises in price, miners buy equipment en masse. Conversely, when the price falls, ASIC sales plummet, and some mining farms are even shut down entirely.
By way of comparison: other, fairly popular cryptocurrencies have a slightly different economic model for mining, and consequently, different levels of viability and profitability. Litecoin, due to its technological characteristics, has significantly lower energy costs. That said, it also has a lower market capitalisation. Dogecoin is mined alongside Litecoin. Relatively speaking, Kaspa and other new PoW coins have a lower entry threshold, but also carry a significantly higher risk. It should be noted that following the transition to Proof-of-Stake in 2022, Ethereum will no longer be mined in the traditional way.
A tough choice with a touch of luck
Investing in the cryptocurrency sector, specifically in mining, is increasingly resembling a real lottery. If a miner bought equipment before the price rose, has cheap electricity and has weathered periods of decline – they have a 99.9 per cent chance of becoming a multimillionaire.
If, however, they entered the market at the peak of prices, took out a loan or are paying for expensive electricity – they risk operating at a loss or breaking even for years.
At present, Bitcoin remains one of the very few digital assets that, over the course of a decade, has evolved from an intriguing experiment into a global financial instrument with a market capitalisation of trillions of dollars. At the same time, for a significant proportion of market participants, cryptocurrency mining is no longer ‘easy money’. In the reality of 2026, it is a highly competitive business, where two out of ten miners are operating at a loss, and the invisible, insurmountable line between a future multimillionaire and complete bankruptcy is all too often measured by just a few cents per kilowatt-hour.
