Transactions totalling over 3 million ETH were carried out simultaneously on the Binance exchange, indicating a significant shift in the behaviour of holders of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation. The exchange has not recorded such activity – amounting to over 166,001 transactions per day – for more than three years; the mass withdrawal of Ethereum from Binance has become one of the most powerful and clear on-chain signals from the global crypto market in 2026.
The reason why Ethereum lagged behind Bitcoin throughout the second quarter of 2026 lies not so much in the weakness of the network as in a shift in the structure of global capital – during periods of high macroeconomic uncertainty, large investors traditionally favour Bitcoin, the most liquid digital asset. At the same time, Ethereum remains the primary infrastructure for staking, the tokenisation of real-world assets (RWAs), DeFi and most institutional Web3 solutions. It is a historically proven fact that, following the end of a phase of Bitcoin dominance, capital has often begun to flow precisely into Ethereum.
For professional investors, the ‘litmus test’ has always been not only the volume of transactions but also a combination of on-chain metrics, as a rise in the Whale Ratio signals an increased risk of sell-offs. Similar signals have been observed in the crypto markets on numerous occasions in the past. For example, following the banking crisis in the US in March 2023, as the 2022–2023 bear cycle drew to a close, major investors were actively transferring crypto assets from centralised exchanges to their own crypto wallets or the decentralised finance ecosystem.
At present, this situation does not imply inevitable or unpredictable price growth – similar periods in the crypto market have often preceded accumulation phases in the past, but the pressing question that will require an answer is the behaviour of the Whale Ratio, SOPR, MVRV, NUPL and other indicators.
If, by the end of December 2026, the SOPR consistently exceeds one, this will indicate that the majority of investors are taking profits. A gradual return of the MVRV to historically neutral levels, coupled with a rise in the NUPL, may indicate a likely transition of the market from a phase of undervaluation to a phase of sustained accumulation. This does not guarantee a new ‘bull’ cycle; however, historically, it is precisely this configuration that has preceded a long-term recovery for Ethereum.
A likely scenario for developments up to the end of 2026 suggests that, provided there is a further reduction in exchange reserves of ETH, sustained demand from ETFs, the growth of staking and a stable macroeconomic environment, Ethereum could enter a new phase of fundamental accumulation. Although this does not guarantee rapid price growth, it will be capable of forming a strong foundation for the next market cycle, in which the key driver will be the institutional use of the Ethereum network as the underlying infrastructure for the entire digital economy.
As for open interest in the derivatives market and spot Ethereum ETFs, the situation is likely to develop in a predictable and expected manner. If open interest rises in tandem with an increase in spot demand and without excessive use of leverage, this will likely signal the arrival of new institutional capital. If, however, open interest rises rapidly without being backed by spot purchases, volatility will increase. And if the outflow of coins from centralised exchanges continues in the second half of 2026, the market may face a gradual reduction in the free supply of ETH.
